191
FXHW60 PHFO 071935
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
935 AM HST SUN JUN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SPEEDS
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A BAND OF MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER
THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL FILTER IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW, MAINLY
FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE
BACKGROUND FLOW MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAND AND SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY A
MINOR UPDATE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE
FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. THOUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY STABLE, PLENTY OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION, WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH AND FEW OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IN THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU. WITH
THE INVERSION LIFTED TO ABOUT 8,000 FEET AS INDICATED FROM THIS
MORNING'S LIHUE SOUNDING, SEVERAL SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE
TERRAIN INTO LEEWARD AREAS OF KAUAI AND OAHU, AS WELL.
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. WHETHER THE FOCUS WILL BE ON OAHU, KAUAI, OR
BOTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL DEPEND ON ANY FLUCTUATIONS NORTH
OR SOUTH OF THE AXIS OF THE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN
THE BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM HST SUN JUN 7 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH LIMITED SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
REVOLVES AROUND GRADUAL FLUCTUATIONS IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS AND THE
TIMING OF MINOR BATCHES OF MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUING TO
DRIVE BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN GET
PUSHED FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND A FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE THE TRADES TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE
WEEK. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BACKGROUND WINDS MAY BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAND AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, BRINGING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, BUT WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY SOME SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF KAUAI AND OAHU DUE TO ONGOING AND UPSTREAM
SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERMITTENT
THROUGHOUT TODAY, BUT SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS, AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA),
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND. BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENED AND DEPRESSED
SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, TRADES WILL DROP FURTHER AND ALLOW THE SCA
TO BE CANCELLED ENTIRELY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
SMALL LONG-PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT SOUTH SWELL ARE
STARTING TO SHOW UP THIS MORNING ALONG OUR NEAR SHORE BUOYS WITH
ENERGY CENTERED IN THE 18 TO 22 SECOND BANDS. ENERGY FROM THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND BUMP UP
SURF TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE JUNE AVERAGE, BUT STILL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT THIS SWELL TO FADE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
SMALLER PULSE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS DUE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ON TRACK
TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF BY
LATE SUNDAY ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
SMALL BACKGROUND ENERGY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FROM A FORMER TYPHOON IN THE WEST PACIFIC LAST
WEEK. ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY, THEN SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS
TRADE WINDS EASE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM...FARRIS
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...KINO
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