805
FXHW60 PHFO 100631
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
831 PM HST TUE JUN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
EASE INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS. A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES FORM. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DEPICTS BREEZY
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE STATE. A BAND OF
MOISTURE APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING, COMBINED WITH AN
ELEVATED TRADE WIND INVERSION NEAR 10 KFT AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS
MOISTURE MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING ENHANCED
RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS, POTENTIALLY EXPANDING TO
ALL WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO EASE INTO THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME, A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED, WITH PASSING SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS, PARTICULARLY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, STRENGTHENING
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE LATEST BALLOON SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION HEIGHT TO 10,000 FEET, THEREFORE MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE ISLANDS, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LITTLE LESS,
FOCUSING MOSTLY OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS, WHILE VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR
AIRMET SIERRA FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI DUE TO
THE INCREASING SHOWERS.
MARINE
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
WEAKEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT PASSES FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH THE LARGER SOUTH SWELL OF THE WEEK DUE TO ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS
OVERLAPPING A FADING SWELL, PRODUCING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A SMALLER PULSE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS
WILL FILL IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING SURF ELEVATED
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
LONG-PERIOD ENERGY FROM A STORM THAT PASSED WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW AROUND NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FILL IN LOCALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE MODELS HAVE
THIS SWELL PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT COULD DRIVE SURF
HEIGHTS TO NEAR THE WARNING LEVEL. THIS SWELL WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE
RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
A SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AND FADE
THURSDAY. EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TRADES EASE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GIBBS
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...WALSH
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