287
FXHW60 PHFO 101322
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
322 AM HST WED JUN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
EASE INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES FORM.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DEPICTS BREEZY
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSISTING TODAY AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE STATE. A BAND OF MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE, COMBINED WITH AN ELEVATED TRADE
WIND INVERSION NEAR 10 KFT AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, HAS LED
TO SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT HILO SHOWS A
MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TO
1.57 INCHES. THE LATEST RAINFALL SUMMARY REFLECTS THIS SHOWING
PEAK ACCUMULATIONS NEARING AN INCH IN SOME OF THE WINDWARD MAUI
GAUGES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (ENDING AT 2 AM HST). THIS MOISTURE
MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING ENHANCED RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS, POTENTIALLY EXPANDING TO ALL
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO EASE INTO THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME, A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED, WITH PASSING SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS, PARTICULARLY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, STRENGTHENING
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY ENE TRADE WINDS TODAY AND THEN DECREASE A LITTLE
LATER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR SHOWERS TO BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI WINDWARD AREAS TODAY AND COULD SPREAD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AT A LESSER EXTENT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS, WHILE VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
DUE TO FREQUENT SHOWER ACTIVITY CAUSING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND MAY SPREAD TO
OTHER ISLANDS.
MARINE
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HOLD TODAY, THEN WEAKEN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE
EASING INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH THE LARGER SOUTH SWELL OF THE WEEK DUE TO ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS
OVERLAPPING A FADING SWELL, PRODUCING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SMALLER PULSE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL
FILL IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING SURF ELEVATED ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES.
LONG-PERIOD ENERGY FROM A STORM THAT PASSED WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW AROUND NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FILL IN LOCALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE MODELS HAVE
THIS SWELL PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT COULD DRIVE SURF
HEIGHTS TO NEAR THE WARNING LEVEL. THIS SWELL WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE
RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
A SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AND FADE
THURSDAY. EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TRADES EASE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GIBBS
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...WALSH
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