372
FXHW60 PHFO 101817
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
817 AM HST WED JUN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
EASE INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES FORM.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
OAHU AT THE TIME OF THIS MID MORNING UPDATE. BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE, THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS ON THE BREEZY TRADES. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM HST WED JUN 10 2026
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DEPICTS BREEZY
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSISTING TODAY AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE STATE. A BAND OF MOISTURE OVER
THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE, COMBINED WITH AN ELEVATED TRADE
WIND INVERSION NEAR 10 KFT AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, HAS LED
TO SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT HILO SHOWS A
MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TO
1.57 INCHES. THE LATEST RAINFALL SUMMARY REFLECTS THIS SHOWING
PEAK ACCUMULATIONS NEARING AN INCH IN SOME OF THE WINDWARD MAUI
GAUGES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (ENDING AT 2 AM HST). THIS MOISTURE
MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING ENHANCED RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS, POTENTIALLY EXPANDING TO ALL
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO EASE INTO THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME, A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED, WITH PASSING SHOWERS
FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS, PARTICULARLY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, STRENGTHENING
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE SHOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY ENE TRADE WINDS TODAY AND THEN DECREASE A LITTLE
LATER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR SHOWERS TO BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI WINDWARD AREAS TODAY AND COULD SPREAD TO THE OTHER ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AT A LESSER EXTENT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS, WHILE VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD OAHU, MAUI, MOLOKAI, AND
THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO FREQUENT SHOWER ACTIVITY CAUSING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY.
MARINE
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HOLD TODAY MAINTAINING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. TRADES
WILL EASE INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH A LARGE SOUTH SWELL DUE TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS
FADING. NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SMALLER PULSE OF
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL FILL IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
KEEPING SURF ELEVATED ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
LONG-PERIOD ENERGY FROM A STORM THAT PASSED WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW AROUND NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FILL IN LOCALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE MODELS HAVE
THIS SWELL PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL LIKELY DRIVE SURF
HEIGHTS NEAR OR ABOVE WARNING LEVEL. THIS SWELL WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
A SMALL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FADE TODAY INTO THURSDAY. EAST
SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS TRADES EASE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...FARRIS
DISCUSSION...GIBBS
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...ALMANZA
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