033
FXHW60 PHFO 110609 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
809 PM HST WED JUN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
EASE INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. A FEW AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES FORM. TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
SPANNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE LAST HOUR
(AS OF 7:30 PM HST) WITH EXCEPTION TO WINDWARD BIG ISLAND, NAMELY
AROUND THE HILO AREA, WHERE RAINFALL HAS NEARLY DOUBLED. BASED ON
PREVIOUS READINGS, RAINFALL HAS EASED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
EARLIER TODAY. TRADES ALSO REMAIN MODERATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO EASE GRADUALLY EASE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST DESCRIBES THE SITUATION
WELL, THEREFORE, NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS EVENING'S
UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM HST WED JUN 10 2026
A POCKET OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND IT DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREEZY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WEAKENS. THE TRANSITION TO A
LIGHTER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WINDWARD TO MAUKA SHOWERS
AS LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES IN ON THE TRADES, AND THE ADDITION OF
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHT AND BRIEF DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES
WILL TRY TO BECOME REESTABLISHED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. WITH THE NEXT BAND OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
MORE MOISTURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK, THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC UPTICKS IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.
AVIATION
TRADE WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WEAKENS. LOW CIGS AND SHRA
RIDING IN ON THE TRADES SHOULD IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING. SOME ISOL IFR TO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE OTHERWISE VFR
PREVAILS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF
OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.
MARINE
A SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A FRONT PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES WILL EASE INTO THE GENTLE TO MODERATE CATEGORY DURING
THIS TIME WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGES STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE STATE.
A SERIES OF SMALL PULSES OF SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL FILL IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES.
LONG-PERIOD ENERGY FROM A STORM THAT PASSED WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW AROUND NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FILL IN LOCALLY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE
MODELS HAVE THIS SWELL PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL DRIVE
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR OR ABOVE WARNING LEVELS. THIS SWELL WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS LARGE SOUTH SWELL AND A
SERIES OF MORE OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND AS TRADES EASE, THEN PICK UP A NOTCH NEXT
WEEK AS MORE BREEZY TRADES RETURN. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PIERCE
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...TSAMOUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page