845
FXHW60 PHFO 111311
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
311 AM HST THU JUN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA
LOCATIONS. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO DEVELOP LOCALIZED LAND
AND SEA BREEZES, WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OVER
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO THEN
STRENGTHENING AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MOISTURE-LADEN TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING, RESPONSIBLE FOR ALLOCATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER AS
DRIER CONDITIONS SUCCUMB THE STATE, EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD, TRADES WILL RESPOND, GRADUALLY EASING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOORS FOR
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
INTRODUCING LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT CLEARING.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE, SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWCASES BANDS OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. LEADING TO PERIODIC UPTICKS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE LATTER END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
TRADE WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WEAKENS. LOW CIGS AND SHRA
EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE
OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF
OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST AS A FRONT PASSES BY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL
CAUSE TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN INTO THE THE GENTLE TO MODERATE
CATEGORY WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGES STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE
STATE.
A SMALL PULSE OF SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN TODAY INTO
FRIDAY KEEPING NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
LONG-PERIOD ENERGY FROM A STORM THAT PASSED WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW AROUND NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FILL IN LOCALLY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
PEAK OF THIS STORM HAD SEAS NEAR 55 FEET, AND CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THIS SWELL PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL DRIVE SURF
HEIGHTS NEAR WARNING LEVELS. THE SWELL IS HITTING THE SAMOA BUOY
THIS MORNING, SO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE SIZE OF THE SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE SWELL FILLS IN FURTHER THERE. THIS
SWELL WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES AND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK
DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE THREAT OF HARBOR SURGES. SOUTH SHORE SURF
WILL THEN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
SLOW DECLINE OF THIS LARGE SOUTH SWELL AND A SERIES OF MORE
OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND AS TRADES EASE, THEN PICK UP A NOTCH NEXT
WEEK AS MORE BREEZY TRADES RETURN. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...TSAMOUS
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