423
FXHW60 PHFO 111928
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
928 AM HST THU JUN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WHICH WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON, AND LAND BREEZES WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING BACK THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. A
SLIGHT WEAKENING AND VEERING OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY UNFOLD FOR
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND TO OAHU THIS
MORNING. AFTER THIS CURRENT BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH, DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOW CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE. WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROJECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OVER SOME LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.
IF THE WINDS WEAKEN ENOUGH TONIGHT, LAND BREEZES MAY DEVELOP AND
HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, IN WHICH CASE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM HST THU JUN 11 2026
MOISTURE-LADEN TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING, RESPONSIBLE FOR ALLOCATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THEREAFTER AS
DRIER CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS THE STATE, EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD, TRADES WILL RESPOND, GRADUALLY EASING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOORS FOR
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
INTRODUCING LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT CLEARING.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE, SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWCASES BANDS OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. LEADING TO PERIODIC UPTICKS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND PREVAILING
THROUGH THE LATTER END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME WEAKER AS A SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEAKENS. LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED, MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
HEAVIER SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
LOCATIONS OF OAHU, MAUI, AND BIG ISLAND. CONDS MAY EXTEND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 AM HST THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST AS
A FRONT PASSES BY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL CAUSE TRADE
WINDS TO WEAKEN INTO THE THE GENTLE TO MODERATE CATEGORY WITH
LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE SURFACE RIDGES STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE STATE.
A SMALL PULSE OF SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN TODAY INTO
FRIDAY KEEPING NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
LONG-PERIOD ENERGY FROM A STORM THAT PASSED WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW AROUND NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FILL IN LOCALLY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
PEAK OF THIS STORM HAD SEAS NEAR 55 FEET, AND CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THIS SWELL PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL DRIVE SURF
HEIGHTS NEAR WARNING LEVELS. THE SWELL IS HITTING THE SAMOA BUOY
THIS MORNING, SO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE SIZE OF THE SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE SWELL FILLS IN FURTHER THERE. THIS
SWELL WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES AND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK
DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE THREAT OF HARBOR SURGES. SOUTH SHORE SURF
WILL THEN REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
SLOW DECLINE OF THIS LARGE SOUTH SWELL AND A SERIES OF MORE
OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND AS TRADES EASE, THEN PICK UP A NOTCH NEXT
WEEK AS MORE BREEZY TRADES RETURN. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...FARRIS
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...TSAMOUS
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