111
FXHW60 PHFO 120146
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST THU JUN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WHICH WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WITH LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING BACK THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY UNFOLD FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST GETS PUSHED FARTHER AWAY,
DISPLACED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE FAR NORTH
AND ADVANCING TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE LIGHTER BACKGROUND
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SEA AND LAND
BREEZE CYCLES TO DEVELOP, BRINGING AFTERNOON LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THE SEA BREEZE CYCLE
ALREADY KICKED OFF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
MOST NOTABLY OVER LEEWARD OAHU AND THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES GRADUALLY RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE REDEVELOPING TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC UPTICKS IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW TO THE NORTH MAY CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AROUND
THE SAME TIME, BOOSTING DEW POINTS AND BRINGING AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS, BUT IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH, THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS.
AVIATION
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WEAKER THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS WEAKENS. LOW CEILINGS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN LEEWARD
AREAS STARTING TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS, OTHERWISE
VFR.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
LOCATIONS OF OAHU, MAUI, AND BIG ISLAND. CONDITION WILL LIKELY
EXTEND THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL RETURN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF
THE AREA.
A MIX OF SMALL PULSES OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS IS STILL
ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, RECHARGING NEAR AVERAGE
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
LONG-PERIOD ENERGY FROM A STORM THAT PASSED WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW AROUND NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK IS PEAKING AT THE
SAMOA BUOY THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 15 FEET 20 SECONDS. SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD LOCALLY SATURDAY AND PEAK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY
TIDES AND WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE THREAT OF HARBOR SURGES. SOUTH SHORE
SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
SLOW DECLINE OF THIS LARGE SOUTH SWELL AND A SERIES OF MORE
OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND AS TRADES EASE, THEN PICK UP A NOTCH NEXT
WEEK AS MORE BREEZY TRADES RETURN. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...ALMANZA
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