491
FXHW60 PHFO 121904
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
904 AM HST FRI JUN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
GENTLE TRADES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODERATE TRADES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING BACK THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
WEAKENING AND VEERING OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY UNFOLD FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
THE RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND, AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE. WE EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA, BUT ALSO IN THE KONA REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
IN LEEWARD AREAS DUE TO WEAK SEA BREEZES THAT SHOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
STAY RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONGER SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN
EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR LEEWARD SHOWERS. A MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE KONA REGION HAS BEEN COMPLETED THIS
MORNING, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM HST FRI JUN 12 2026
THIS MORNING'S OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE STATE SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LIGHT LAND BREEZES OVER MANY AREAS OF THE STATE. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE, WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE GENTLE TRADE WINDS BY LATER THIS MORNING. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO SOME SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SELECT LEEWARD AREAS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR AREAS. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE IN MANY AREAS DUE TO THE DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SEEN ON THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING. DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE GENTLE TRADES WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SOME PASSING
SHOWERS. A BAND OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE COULD MOVE IN BY MONDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE EAST AND A
DEVELOPING LOW TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE EAST
WILL INCREASE THE DEW POINTS AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD ALSO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN END
OF THE STATE. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, BUT IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY MIDWEEK, THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 349 AM HST FRI JUN 12 2026
GENTLE TRADES WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS, BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 AM HST FRI JUN 12 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE STATE KEEPS
TRADE WINDS TEMPERED. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA.
SMALL PULSES OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE SURF
TO SOUTH FACING SHORES TODAY. SURF WILL BEGIN TO TREND UP ON SATURDAY
AS FORERUNNERS FROM A LARGE, LONG-PERIOD SWELL ORIGINATING FROM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND ARRIVE. SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, APPROACHING WARNING LEVELS, BUT MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN AT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS SWELL WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY
TIDES WHICH MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS
LARGE SOUTH SWELL AND A SERIES OF CONTINUED OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS.
VERY LITTLE SWELL ENERGY IS ARRIVING ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES TODAY,
KEEPING SURF TINY TO NON-EXISTENT. A SMALL BUMP IN SURF IS POSSIBLE
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL AND A SMALLER NORTH SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAKER
THAN AVERAGE TRADE WINDS NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE
BELOW AVERAGE SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...KINO
MARINE...QUESADA
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