302
FXHW60 PHFO 130103
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
303 PM HST FRI JUN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY IN SOME LEEWARD AREAS BEFORE WE
RETURN TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF INCREASED MOISTURE SHOWING
UP TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS, AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THE AFTERNOON. RADAR WAS SHOWING SHOWERS
OVER NORTH KONA ON THE BIG ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST
OF THOSE HAVE DISSIPATED. AS OF 3 PM HST, ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
OVER SOUTH PUNA AND KA'U, BUT OTHERWISE IT WAS DRY. WINDS WERE
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN WINDWARD AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE
HIGHLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF SEA-BREEZES,
AND WERE AVERAGING 5 TO 15 MPH.
WE'LL SEE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW FORM TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WEAK WINDS
THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, OVER SOME LEEWARD AREAS. AND
OF COURSE THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WILL STILL SEE THEIR SHARE
OF SHOWERS, TOO.
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HOLD PRETTY
STEADY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN
END TO THE STRONGER SEA BREEZES, AND RETURN THINGS TO A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WITH SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERHAPS HANG AROUND THE AREA - CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE AND HOW LONG
IT WILL LINGER. OVERALL, CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY HAVE BEEN
MINOR.
AVIATION
GENTLE TRADES WITH LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY VFR
CONDITION. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE STATE DISPLACES
THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE TRADE WINDS TEMPERED. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA.
SMALL PULSES OF SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE
SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES INTO SATURDAY. SURF WILL BEGIN TO
TREND UP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS FORERUNNERS ARRIVE FROM A
LARGE, LONG-PERIOD SWELL ORIGINATING FROM A STORM- TO HURRICANE-
FORCE LOW THAT MOVED UP ALONG HAWAII'S SWELL WINDOW SOUTH AND JUST
EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THIS SWELL PEAKED AT THE AMERICAN SAMOA BUOYS
AROUND 12 FEET 17 SECONDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURF IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK LOCALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, APPROACHING WARNING LEVELS, BUT
MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN AT HIGH-END ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS SWELL WILL
ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE
CYCLES EACH AFTERNOON. SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS LARGE
SOUTH SWELL AND A SERIES OF CONTINUED OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS.
VERY LITTLE SWELL ENERGY IS ARRIVING ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES
TODAY, KEEPING SURF TINY TO FLAT. A SMALL BUMP IN SURF IS
POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL AND A SMALLER NORTH SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAKER
THAN AVERAGE TRADE WINDS NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WILL
PRODUCE BELOW AVERAGE SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...FARRIS
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