893
FXHW60 PHFO 140122
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
322 PM HST SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO INTERIOR REGIONS AND
ALONG MOUNTAIN SLOPES. EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG WINDWARD AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AND
AN AREA OF MARGINALLY ENHANCED MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS
WITH AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED MAINLY
INTERIOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER MAUI AS OF 3 PM HST, WITH A BIT
LESS CLOUDINESS THAN USUAL IN MOST WINDWARD AREAS. WINDS WERE
LIGHT, AVERAGING 5 TO 15 MPH. SEA BREEZES HAD DEVELOPED ON THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF MOST ISLANDS.
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS LEADING TO HEALTHY SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST LEEWARD AREAS, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
TOMORROW AND MONDAY AS TRADE WINDS PICK BACK UP A BIT. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, ENHANCING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AND REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH FRIDAY, LEADING TO A RETURN OF SEA BREEZES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN LEEWARD AREAS ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER
MONDAY, SO THAT'S WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP.
AVIATION
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL ALLOW GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES TO STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE TO FRESH BACKGROUND
LEVELS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STABLE AND SOMEWHAT DRY AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. A BAND OF MOISTURE RIDING IN WITH THE
TRADES WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SLIGHTLY ALONG WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS STARTING SUNDAY.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST (200 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD
TONIGHT AND PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECLINING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. NEAR SHORE BUOYS,
INCLUDING LANAI AND BARBER'S POINT, SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THE DOMINANT 22 SECOND PERIOD. EXPECT THE
SWELL TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SURF
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
WITH SURF HEIGHTS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SURF COULD ALSO REACH WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY (ADVISORY ALONG WEST FACING SHORES), BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT LOWER OVER 24 HOURS OUT FROM THE FORECAST PEAK. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR BUOYS AND FUTURE GUIDANCE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
UPGRADING.
THIS SWELL WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES WHICH
WILL ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP ON TOP OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE PEAK SWELL PASSES, SOUTH SHORE SURF
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW
DECLINE OF THIS LARGE SOUTH SWELL AND A SERIES OF CONTINUED
OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
VERY LITTLE SWELL ENERGY IS ARRIVING ALONG NORTH FACING KEEPING
SURF TINY TO FLAT. A SMALL BUMP IN SURF IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-
FACING SHORES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL AND A SMALLER NORTH SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
FRONT IS HELD UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF HAWAII. SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS A RESULT.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS, DOCKS, BOAT
RAMPS AND OTHER COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE. PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES
COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED
WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE,
WHICH WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS,
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WHILE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ALONG ALL SHORELINES, THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SWELL, KING TIDES AND THE DAILY HIGH TIDE WILL MAKE LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS ALONG SOUTH AND WEST SHORES SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-KONA-LANAI
LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...FOSTER
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