580
FXHW60 PHFO 150142
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
342 PM HST SUN JUN 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF MAUI, MOLOKAI, AND OAHU AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZES
SHOULD HELP BING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS
LOCATIONS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
BIG ISLAND, AND PERHAPS MAUI.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND AND KAUAI COUNTY.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT OVER KAUAI COUNTY AND MUCH OF
EASTERN BIG ISLAND. MINIMAL VOLCANIC ASH HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH
TODAY'S 39TH EPISODE OF KILAUEA, AND MOST OF IT HAS BEEN CARRIED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CRATER INTO RELATIVELY UNINHABITED AREAS. WINDS
HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS OF 3 PM HST, ALLOWING THE ASH
TO FALL OUT CLOSE TO THE CRATER, WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST DRIFT.
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES IN
GUIDANCE. TRADES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN WEAKEN TO 5 TO 10 MPH FROM TUESDAY TO THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AGAIN. RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, BUT INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT
TO THE BIG ISLAND FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE
MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TOWARD MAUI COUNTY (AND PERHAPS
EVEN OAHU) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THERE. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
HEIGHT OF THE TRADE INVERSION, WHICH MAKES FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. BUT SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT FORECAST. THE
LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK MEANS A RETURN TO SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS, ALONG WITH SOME WEAK WINDWARD AND
MAUKA ENHANCEMENT.
AVIATION
MODERATE AND STABLE TRADES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD, ALONG
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LAND/SEA BREEZES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TRADES MAY MAKE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, MAINLY FOR MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU, OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
WINDWARD OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER.
A SHARP, THOUGH WEAK, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE
TURBULENCE ALOFT OVER THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE AIRMET TANGO IS IN
PLACE ABOVE FL300. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
A LARGE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (200 DEGREE) SWELL WILL
PEAK TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. LATEST 51002 BUOY READINGS REMAIN STEADY WITH HEIGHTS
OF AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET AT 17 TO 19 SECONDS. THE LARGE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELL COMBINED WITH KING TIDES WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUN UP ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUN UP, THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO A
HIGH SURF WARNING FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL.
VERY LITTLE SWELL ENERGY IS ARRIVING ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES,
KEEPING SURF TINY TO FLAT. A SMALL BUMP IN SURF IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-
FACING SHORES BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL AND A SMALLER NORTH SWELL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS, DOCKS, BOAT
RAMPS AND OTHER COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE. KING TIDES COMBINED WITH
WATER LEVELS THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE, WHICH WILL BE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. WHILE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG ALL
SHORELINES, THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL, KING
TIDES AND THE DAILY HIGH TIDE WILL MAKE LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST SHORES SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE LARGE
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING HARBOR SURGES AND
BREAKING WAVES NEAR HARBOR ENTRANCES ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-KONA-LANAI
LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...KINO
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