232
FXHW60 PHFO 150649
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
849 PM HST SUN JUN 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF MAUI, MOLOKAI, AND OAHU AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. AFTERNOON COASTAL SEA BREEZES
SHOULD HELP BING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINOUS
LOCATIONS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
BIG ISLAND, AND PERHAPS MAUI.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
THIS EVENING'S IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS ALL ISLANDS. OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD BEEN
CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY, OAHU, AND ALONG THE
HAMAKUA COAST ON THE BIG ISLAND, THOUGH MANY LEEWARD SITES
REPORTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AS WELL. FORTUNATELY, RAIN RATES
HAVE REMAINED BELOW HALF INCH AN HOUR, SO FLOODING WAS OF LITTLE
CONCERN. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE PROGS THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ON
ITS WESTWARD JOURNEY TONIGHT, PUSHING AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING. IN THE UPDATE, CLOUD COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL CHANCES WERE UPPED SLIGHTLY IN THE LEEWARD AREAS OF OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AND DECREASED STATEWIDE MONDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE PRECISE TIMING OF DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO BE
FILTERING IN ON THE HEALS OF THIS PASSING BAND.
TRADE WINDS HAVE BEEN MODERATE TODAY, AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
OVER MOST SITES WITH SOME STAND OUT LOCATIONS BREACHING 20 MPH.
THESE MODERATE TRADES ARE ON TRACK TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY,
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EPISODE 49 OF THE KILAUEA ERUPTION ENDED AT 505 PM THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM HST SUN JUN 14 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU,
WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND AND KAUAI COUNTY.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT OVER KAUAI COUNTY AND MUCH OF
EASTERN BIG ISLAND. MINIMAL VOLCANIC ASH HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH
TODAY'S 49TH EPISODE OF KILAUEA, AND MOST OF IT HAS BEEN CARRIED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CRATER INTO RELATIVELY UNINHABITED AREAS. WINDS
HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS OF 3 PM HST, ALLOWING THE ASH TO
FALL OUT CLOSE TO THE CRATER, WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST DRIFT.
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES IN
GUIDANCE. TRADES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN WEAKEN TO 5 TO 10 MPH FROM TUESDAY TO THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AGAIN. RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, BUT INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT
TO THE BIG ISLAND FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE
MAY BRIEFLY EXTEND NORTH AND WEST TOWARD MAUI COUNTY (AND PERHAPS
EVEN OAHU) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THERE. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
HEIGHT OF THE TRADE INVERSION, WHICH MAKES FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. BUT SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT FORECAST. THE
LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK MEANS A RETURN TO SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS, ALONG WITH SOME WEAK WINDWARD AND
MAUKA ENHANCEMENT.
AVIATION
LIGHT, STABLE TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
OCCASIONALLY LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE TRADES MAY LEAD IN LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY RESULTING IN PERIODIC LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS, NAMELY
FOR MAUI COUNTY. TRADES INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THE EARLY MORNING,
BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
WINDWARD OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER.
A SHARP, THOUGH WEAK, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE
TURBULENCE ALOFT OVER THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE AIRMET TANGO IS IN
PLACE ABOVE FL300. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
MODERATE TRADE WINDS TOMORROW WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
A LARGE LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (200 DEGREE) SWELL WILL
HOLD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. BUOY 51002 READINGS REMAIN STEADY AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET AT 17 TO 19 SECONDS AND THE SIZE AT THE WEBCAMS LOOKS AROUND
BORDERLINE AT WARNING LEVELS (15 FOOT SETS) CURRENTLY WITH SOME
LULLS IN BETWEEN SETS. SEEING THAT THESE LARGE SETS SEEM TO BE A
BIT INCONSISTENT, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH SURF WARNING
COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY IF THE BUOY LEVELS DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT AS THE PERIOD
DROPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE CONSISTENCY OF THE SETS COULD
INCREASE. THE LARGE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELL COMBINED WITH KING
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE
RUN UP ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
VERY LITTLE SWELL ENERGY IS ARRIVING ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES,
KEEPING SURF TINY TO FLAT. A SMALL BUMP IN SURF IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-
FACING SHORES BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL AND A SMALLER NORTH SWELL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS, DOCKS, BOAT
RAMPS AND OTHER COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE. KING TIDES COMBINED WITH
WATER LEVELS THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE, WHICH WILL BE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. WHILE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG ALL
SHORELINES, THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL, KING
TIDES AND THE DAILY HIGH TIDE WILL MAKE LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST SHORES SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE LARGE
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING HARBOR SURGES AND
BREAKING WAVES NEAR HARBOR ENTRANCES ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-KONA-LANAI
LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...THOMAS
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...TSAMOUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page