490
FXHW60 PHFO 160152
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
352 PM HST MON JUN 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW
LIGHT WINDWARD SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. THUS, MOST CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED TO INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION, DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. RAIN GAUGES ACROSS THE STATE
REVEAL THAT EVEN THE FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE PRESENT ARE LIGHT, WITH
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STATE PICKING UP NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IS
STEERING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS OVER THE REGION.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD, NORTH OF THE STATE. AS THIS OCCURS, THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME DISPLACED FARTHER AWAY,
WEAKENING LOCAL TRADE WIND FLOW. MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY, WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND A
FEW LIGHT WINDWARD SHOWERS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
EVEN FURTHER, WITH BACKGROUND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
DAYTIME HEATING, COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW, WILL LEAD TO
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SHOULD MAINLY BE LIMITED TO OVER THE ISLAND INTERIORS AND
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE COULD ACT TO INCREASE SHOWER
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS BAND OF MOISTURE UP
THROUGH MAUI COUNTY AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, OAHU ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHWARD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW,
COMBINED WITH THIS BATCH OF MOISTURE, COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS INTERIORS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, SAVE FOR THE OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER OVER
WINDWARD SITES.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE OVER THE
BIG ISLAND BETWEEN FL300 TO FL400.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE, WEAKENING THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGHS WEAKEN AND LIFT FAR NORTH, ALLOWING FRESH
TO MODERATE TRADES TO RETURN.
A LARGE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN WARNING
LEVEL SURF THROUGH TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH-FACING SHORES. BUOY 51002
READINGS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED A FOOT SINCE THIS MORNING AND
ARE NOW HOVERING AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET AT 15 TO 16 SECONDS. CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A SLOW DECLINE IN SURF AS THIS LARGE SWELL FADES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL DROP
TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) LEVELS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
COULD FURTHER DROP BELOW HSA LEVELS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY THAT COULD PUSH SURF BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS.
VERY LITTLE SWELL ENERGY IS ARRIVING ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES,
KEEPING SURF TINY TO FLAT. A SMALL BUMP IN SURF IS POSSIBLE FOR
NORTH-FACING SHORES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL AND A SMALLER NORTH SWELL. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AS WINDS EASE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS, DOCKS, BOAT
RAMPS AND OTHER COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE DUE TO KING TIDES. KING
TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AROUND THE DAILY
PEAK TIDE, WHICH WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS, THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG ALL SHORELINES, THE
COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL AND PEAK DAILY
HIGH TIDES WILL MAKE LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS ALONG SOUTH AND WEST
SHORES SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE LARGE,
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL PRODUCING HARBOR SURGES AND
BREAKING WAVES NEAR HARBOR ENTRANCES ALONG SOUTH AND WEST-FACING
HARBORS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KOHALA-
KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI
SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI
CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-KIPAHULU-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...ALMANZA
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