089
FXHW60 PHFO 011918
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
918 AM HST WED JUL 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THIS MORNING. A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUGGIER CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS TODAY.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS, PARTICULARLY
ON OAHU. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TYPICALLY HAVE NOT EXCEEDED HALF AN
INCH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ON OAHU AND KAUAI, AND WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE INCH IN THE SAME TIME FRAME ON MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXITS TO THE WEST,
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
TREND DOWN. DEW POINTS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
BY THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM HST WED JUL 1 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED GRIDS WERE TWEAKED TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
NBM DATA. THE OVERALL FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE.
A 1036 MB HIGH REMAINS FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEAR 40N. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE
RESULT WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR TRADE WINDS. GENERALLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY, AND LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME MORE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS SHOWERS THIS
MORNING, AND THEN AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE LOW 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, MAKING IT FEEL MUGGIER THAN NORMAL. THE MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF THESE DEWPOINTS, WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S STARTING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOW CIGS AND SHRA EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE MORNING, AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.
AIRMET TANGO IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOD TURB DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH TODAY.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
DECLINING SLIGHTLY TO BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FADING SWELL COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF SMALL,
MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS, WILL DELIVER
BELOW-AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MODERATE,
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE, BOOSTING SURF
HEIGHTS TO NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS TRADE WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG. SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH A MINOR UPTICK POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...QUESADA
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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