290
FXHW60 PHFO 020628
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
828 PM HST WED JUL 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE REST
OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY TO MODERATE
LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY RESTRENGTHENING
BACK TO LOCALLY BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
NO CHANGES OR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXPECTED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM HST WED JUL 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEAR 40N. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE INDUCES A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN TRADES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEN, THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD SLOWLY THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALLOW
TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY RESTRENGTHEN.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE ISLANDS, AS INDICATED IN SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER, WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DROP BELOW 70 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AND LESS
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, WHICH WILL
BE MOST WIDESPREAD AT NIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS. AT THIS POINT, IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED, WITH AN
INCREASE OF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOME TIME MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH TRAILING MOISTURE.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LIMITED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS, AND VFR ELSEWHERE.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
AREAS OF KAUAI, MAUI, AND THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO ONGOING AND
UPSTREAM SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN DUE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
SLIGHTLY DECLINING, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
JUST BELOW THE SUMMERTIME AVERAGE. THIS FADING SWELL COMBINED
WITH A SERIES OF SMALL, MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS, WILL DELIVER BELOW-AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE, BOOSTING SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS TRADE WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG. SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
A MINOR UPTICK POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A
SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...QUESADA
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...WALSH
SHORT TERM UPDATE...M BALLARD
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