101
FXHW60 PHFO 021950
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
950 AM HST THU JUL 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE REST
OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY TO MODERATE
LEVELS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY RESTRENGTHENING BACK
TO LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
A POCKET OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EVIDENT UPSTREAM OF THE
ISLANDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD PRODUCE A SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM HST THU JUL 2 2026
THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO BRING IT IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST NBM, BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO MODERATE LEVELS, BUT THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS.
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE ISLANDS TODAY, AND THAT WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT DO GET CARRIED IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE LOW 70S THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY LOWER BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S, WHICH WILL
MAKE IT A LITTLE LESS MUGGY. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IN THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE CARRIED INTO THE ISLANDS ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. THIS COULD INCREASE
SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY TO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, FOCUSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS, OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
MARINE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SCA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH.
A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LINGER TODAY JUST BELOW
THE SUMMERTIME AVERAGE. FORERUNNERS OF A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL WILL FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PEAK TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SWELL WILL HELP MAINTAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW
SUMMERTIME AVERAGE SURF INTO THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BOOSTING SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY TODAY WITH A MINOR UPTICK
FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES. TINY TO NEAR FLAT CONDITIONS FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...QUESADA
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...ALMANZA
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