866
FXHW60 PHFO 030145
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 PM HST THU JUL 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SINK SOUTH AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO BUILD BACK TO
LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A DRYING TREND THAT LIMITS SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR TO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY, BUT THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS AS RIDGING SINKS SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT. DESPITE
A GENERALLY DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE ISLANDS TODAY, VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
IN OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS OF 3
PM, BUT HAVE REMAINED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED
OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT A
CONTINUED GRADUAL DRYING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REACHING THE MID 40 PERCENTS FOR LEEWARD AREAS.
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IN THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE CARRIED INTO THE ISLANDS ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. THIS COULD INCREASE
SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY TO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, FOCUSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS, OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
MARINE
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SCA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH.
FORERUNNERS OF A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARE FILLING IN
THIS EVENING AND WILL PEAK TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
HELP MAINTAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW SUMMERTIME AVERAGE SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES INTO THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BOOSTING SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A MINOR UPTICK FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A
SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES. TINY TO NEAR FLAT
CONDITIONS FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...QUESADA
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...ALMANZA
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