798
FXHW60 PHFO 031330
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
MAINTAINING A MODERATE TRADE REGIME. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TRADES WILL FOCUS PREDOMINATELY ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS DURING THIS TIME WITH EXCEPTION TO THIS WEEKEND AS A DRIER
AIR MASS MEANDERS OVER THE ISLANDS INDUCING A DRYING TREND AND
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TRADES WILL
STRENGTHEN BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY, NAMELY IN AREAS THAT ARE TYPICALLY MORE WIND-
PRONE. LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT POCKETS OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, HOWEVER, THIS WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A DRIER AIRMASS
MEANDERS OVER THE ISLANDS.
AS THIS DRIER AIRMASS SUCCUMBS THE STATE, AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID- TO UPPER- 40S ACROSS
MANY LEEWARD AREAS. LIGHT PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AID TO
MAINTAIN VALUES IN THE 50S FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS BEGINNING
TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND BUILD, FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE TRADES
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. EXCESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSPORTED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOW CIGS AND SHRA SHOULD FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS WITH SOME LIMITED SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD AREAS. MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO SHRA. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE MID MORNING HOURS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD TURB BLW 090 DOWNWIND OF ISLAND
TERRAIN.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND REMAINS IN EFFECT
INTO THE WEEKEND. SCA WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH OF
THE TRADE WINDS.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE HAWAII REGION
WILL HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY, KEEPING SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW SOUTH
SHORE SUMMERTIME AVERAGE SURF HEIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
OVERLAPPING MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL
IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BOOSTING SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR
HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
SLOWLY FADE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY INTO NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...BOHLIN
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