035
FXHW60 PHFO 031936
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
936 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL FOCUS LIMITED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 1300 MILES NORTH
OF KAUAI WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT,
A MODERATE TO BREEZY AND STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN. SHALLOW BATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING WINDWARD KAUAI AND BIG ISLAND, WHERE A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WAS MEASURED ON WINDWARD
MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU DURING THIS TIME, AND ALL LEEWARD AREAS HAVE
BEEN DRY. EXPECT CONTINUED MODEST WINDWARD RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUILDS TO AROUND 1034 MB. STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH LEEWARD DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 45 PER CENT
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS MAY REACH THE
STATE ON CONTINUED BREEZY TRADES AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY OR NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOW CIGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD FOCUS MAINLY
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS WITH SOME LIMITED SPILLOVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS, LEADING TO LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF KAUAI DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING, AS THEY ALREADY HAVE FOR
THE REST OF THE ISLANDS, WHERE THE PREVIOUS AIRMET SIERRA WAS IN
EFFECT.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 090
DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN DUE TO TRADE WINDS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
THIS THREAT MAY DWINDLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND REMAINS IN EFFECT
INTO THE WEEKEND. SCA WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH OF
THE TRADE WINDS.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE HAWAII REGION
WILL HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY, KEEPING SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW SOUTH
SHORE SUMMERTIME AVERAGE SURF HEIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
OVERLAPPING MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL
IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BOOSTING SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR
HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
SLOWLY FADE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY INTO NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...BOHLIN
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