360
FXHW60 PHFO 040124
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
324 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL FOCUS LIMITED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ROUGHLY 1300 MILES
NORTH OF KAUAI WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE STATE. AS A
RESULT, A MODERATE TO BREEZY AND STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL GRAZE
OAHU THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE CONTINUED INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS, THE WETTER PORTIONS OF WINDWARD KAUAI WILL
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL OF MAINLY A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS TONIGHT.
A SIMILAR BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT CONTINUED MODEST
WINDWARD RAINFALL TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUILDS TO AROUND 1034 MB.
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS MAY REACH THE
STATE ON CONTINUED BREEZY TRADES AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY OR NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOW CIGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD FOCUS MAINLY
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS WITH SOME LIMITED SPILLOVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS, LEADING TO LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 090
DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN DUE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS, ALTHOUGH
THIS THREAT MAY DWINDLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND REMAINS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY. MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL ZONES TO FALL INTO THE SCA
COVERAGE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW SOUTH SHORE SUMMERTIME AVERAGE SURF
HEIGHTS. ANOTHER OVERLAPPING MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN SATURDAY, BOOSTING SURF HEIGHTS TO
NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
SLOWLY FADE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
ON SATURDAY, CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO AROUND 45 PER
CENT EACH AFTERNOON. FUEL CONDITIONS, AS MEASURED BY THE KEETCH
BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX, WILL REMAIN BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...FOSTER
FIRE WEATHER...WROE
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