892
FXHW60 PHFO 040610
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
810 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL FOCUS LIMITED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A SHALLOW BAND OF
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE WEST,
PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PREDOMINATELY WINDWARD AND MAUKA
LOCATIONS OF MOST ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH PER HOUR, THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
RECORDED IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRESENT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO DESCRIBE THE SITUATION WELL,
THEREFORE NO AMENDMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING'S UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2026
A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ROUGHLY 1300 MILES
NORTH OF KAUAI WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE STATE. AS A
RESULT, A MODERATE TO BREEZY AND STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. A SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL GRAZE
OAHU THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE CONTINUED INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS, THE WETTER PORTIONS OF WINDWARD KAUAI WILL
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL OF MAINLY A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS TONIGHT.
A SIMILAR BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT CONTINUED MODEST
WINDWARD RAINFALL TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUILDS TO AROUND 1034 MB.
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS MAY REACH THE
STATE ON CONTINUED BREEZY TRADES AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY OR NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT TIMES, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN LEEWARD LOCALES.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND REMAINS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY. MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL ZONES TO FALL INTO THE SCA
COVERAGE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW SOUTH SHORE SUMMERTIME AVERAGE SURF
HEIGHTS. ANOTHER OVERLAPPING MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN SATURDAY, BOOSTING SURF HEIGHTS TO
NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
SLOWLY FADE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 324 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2026
MODERATE TO LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
ON SATURDAY, CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO AROUND 45 PER
CENT EACH AFTERNOON. FUEL CONDITIONS, AS MEASURED BY THE KEETCH
BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX, WILL REMAIN BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PIERCE
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...FOSTER
FIRE WEATHER...WROE
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