869
FXHW60 PHFO 041332
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
332 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE WEEK. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS
LIMITED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE, MAINTAINING STABLE MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO RIDE
WITHIN THESE TRADES, BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, NAMELY ACROSS KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE LITTLE RAINFALL AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.
TRADES GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY THE TURN OF THE WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BUILDS AND
MEANDERS A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STABLE, FOCUSING TYPICAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, EXCESS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS MAY EXTEND TO THE ISLAND CHAIN BY
WAY OF BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS MAY BRING INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER INITIALLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS AND MAY
SPREAD FURTHER INTO LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE STATE TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT TIMES, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN LEEWARD LOCALES.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
LATER THIS MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND CHANNELS
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
ADDITIONAL ZONES TO FALL INTO THE SCA COVERAGE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
AS THE CURRENT SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL FADES, YET ANOTHER
OVERLAPPING MODERATE LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL
IN TODAY, BOOSTING SOUTH SHORE SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
TODAY, CAUSING RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO AROUND 45 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON. FUEL CONDITIONS, AS MEASURED BY THE KEETCH BYRAN
DROUGHT INDEX, WILL REMAIN BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...PIERCE
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