097
FXHW60 PHFO 050136
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
336 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE WEEK. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS
LIMITED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE, MAINTAINING STABLE MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS WILL SEE
LITTLE RAINFALL AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRADES GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY THE TURN OF THE WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BUILDS AND
MEANDERS A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STABLE, FOCUSING TYPICAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK.
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, EXCESS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS MAY EXTEND TO THE ISLAND CHAIN BY
WAY OF BREEZY TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS MAY BRING INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER INITIALLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS AND MAY
SPREAD FURTHER INTO LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE STATE TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SPEED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS ON THE TRADES, WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS, BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. LOOKING UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE,
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND CHANNELS
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND CONTINUES TONIGHT. THE SCA AREA
EXPANDS TO INCLUDE ALL COASTAL MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY,
INCLUDING KAIWI CHANNEL, ALONG WITH LEEWARD OAHU AS WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS MAY
ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF ADDITIONAL ZONES TO FALL INTO AND OUT
OF THE SCA COVERAGE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL FADE TONIGHT AS AN OVERLAPPING
MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL FILLS IN, BOOSTING SOUTH
SHORE SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SOUTH SWELL DURING THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY FADES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD. A
SLIGHT BUMP IN SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL DWINDLE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SMALL, WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL FADES. SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES THEN REMAINS FLAT TO TINY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TO LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
IN PLACE WILL CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO AROUND 45
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING TODAY. FUEL CONDITIONS, AS
MEASURED BY THE KEETCH BYRAN DROUGHT INDEX, WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...QUESADA
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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