670
FXHW60 PHFO 060636
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
836 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH BRIEF
INCREASING TRENDS ON TUESDAY, AND STRONGER TRENDS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE STATE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS TRADE WIND
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF EACH ISLAND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF HAWAII WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BRIEF PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS PRIMARILY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH TRACKING
EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE ISLANDS. A STRONGER TROUGH MAY BRING
ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM HST SUN JUL 5 2026
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
NEAR 150W LONGITUDE RIDING THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TOWARDS THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INCREASING SHOWER TRENDS TO THE STATE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 130W LONGITUDE, LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS, WILL RIDE THE TRADE
WINDS INTO HAWAII FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS SPREADING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE STABLE
RIDGE ALOFT, THE SECOND TROUGH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT INCREASES TO
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FAVORING ISLAND MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
OTHERWISE, EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE NORTH
OF HAWAII. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES TO THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. MOSTLY STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH SLIGHT INCREASES IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ON TUESDAY, AND STRONGER RAINFALL TRENDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TWO EASTERLY WAVES DRIFT THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE
TO LARGE SCALE STABILITY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECAST DURING
THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH SOME SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE BROADLY EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR MAINLY FOR
WINDWARD/MAUKA SITES.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH
THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS.
A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD, SSW SWELL WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH MONDAY
AND HELP BOOST SURF ALONG S SHORES TO JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY
LEVELS. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL IS SPREAD ACROSS THE
SPECTRUM AND NOT NECESSARILY FOCUSED IN THE LONG PERIOD BINS. THIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THROUGH THE
WEEK AS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD. SURF ALONG N SHORES
REMAINS FLAT TO TINY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...QUESADA/BOHLIN
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...JT
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