444
FXHW60 PHFO 061315
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
315 AM HST MON JUL 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHOW INCREASING TRENDS ON
TUESDAY, AND A STRONGER INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF EACH ISLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF THE STATE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION. BRIEF PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN ON THE TRADES, PRIMARILY FOCUSING
OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.
A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FORMER TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS BRINGS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY INDICES ALSO SHOW
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME OF THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT MUGGIER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH SOME SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE BROADLY EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD/MAUKA SITES.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE WILL HELP
TO DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY, THEN EASE SLIGHTLY TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG FOR
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS, HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD, SOUTH SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEGREE) SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO HELP BOOST SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY, BUT JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS.
THIS SWELL SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ENERGY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SMALL SURF FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
LEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND ENERGY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN CHOPPY THROUGH THE WEEK
AS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES HOLD. EXPECT FLAT TO TINY SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...QUESADA/BOHLIN
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...JT
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