915
FXHW60 PHFO 070622
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
822 PM HST MON JUL 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE BREEZY TRADES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE
MAUKA LOCATIONS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHER RAIN ACCUMULATION LIKELY
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
BREEZY OVER THE NORMAL LOCALES THIS EVENING; THE WINDIEST SPOTS
BEING DOWNSLOPE IN THE LEE OF MAUNA KEA THROUGH THE HAMAKUA AND
KONA REGIONS OF BIG ISLAND, THE SOUTHEASTERN WEST MAUI RANGE OFF
MAALAEA BAY, KALAUPAPA ON MOLOKAI, AND LEEWARD DOWNSLOPE OF HIGHER
OAHU TERRAIN, WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED SUSTAINED AT 25 MPH
GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH. LIGHT, PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MANY WINDWARD LOCATIONS WITH THE MORE FREQUENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER EAST MAUI AND WINDWARD EAST OAHU. THE SHORT
TERM RAINFALL FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST QPF CENTERED ON THE WINDWARD
UPSLOPE UPPER TERRAIN OF BOTH MAUI AND BIG ISLAND THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM HST MON JUL 6 2026
UPPER AIR PATTERN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20N AND 30N REMAINS STAGNANT AND
BLOCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGING FLANKED ON EITHER SIDE
BY CLOSED LOWS. GOVERNING HIGH PRESSURE CHANGES LITTLE IN POSITION
OR INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LEAVING THE ISLANDS IN A
RATHER TYPICAL BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS
IN THE 1.5" TO 1.75" RANGE WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN PREVAILING
TRADES LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO AROUND 12KFT. A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AT THE SURFACE ALSO OCCURS DURING THIS TIME AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO
THE LOW 70S. THE INCREASED MUGGINESS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY
CONTINUED BREEZY TRADES.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 303 PM HST MON JUL 6 2026
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH SOME SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD SITES. VFR
FOR MOST SITES AT MOST TIMES, WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED MVFR
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD/MAUKA SITES.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 815 PM HST MON JUL 6 2026
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE WILL HELP
TO DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF SOME ZONES MAY DROP OUT OF THE SCA AS WINDS
SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND DROP A NOTCH TUESDAY EVENING.
A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD, SOUTH SOUTHWEST (180-190 DEGREES) SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL SLOWLY LOWER
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SMALL SURF FOR
SOUTH FACING SHORES LEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND ENERGY. ANOTHER MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SWELL (210-220 DEGREES) MAY FILL IN SUNDAY BUT DUE TO THE
DIRECTION OF THE SOURCE COULD BE MORE INCONSISTENT THAN THIS
CURRENT SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE WEEK AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A SMALL, MODERATE
PERIOD WEST (280 DEGREES) SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...BLOOD
PREV DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...FOSTER
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