431
FXHW60 PHFO 071305 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
305 AM HST TUE JUL 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS THE ISLANDS, DRIVEN BY
AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE, WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES AS
WELL AS ALONG UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHER
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN STOUT ACROSS MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WINDIEST SPOTS WILL BE OVER MOMENTUM-
BUILDING AREAS DOWNSLOPE OF HIGHER TERRAIN OR IN THE LEE OF BIG
ISLAND VOLCANOES SUCH AS MAUNA KEA THROUGH THE HAMAKUA AND KONA
REGIONS, THE SOUTHEASTERN WEST MAUI RANGE CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
MAALAEA BAY COAST, EXPOSED KALAUPAPA IN NORTH MOLOKAI, AS WELL
AS LEEWARD LOCALES JUST DOWNSLOPE OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON OAHU AND
WINDWARD KAUAI. WINDS OVER THESE AREAS OR THOSE SIMILAR IN WIND
EXPOSURE AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN, HAVE REMAINED 25 MPH
SUSTAINED GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH. MORE FREQUENT LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE INTENSITY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MANY
WINDWARD LOCATIONS WITH MORE ORGANIZED POCKETS OF RAIN BRIEFLY
SPILLING OVER INTO NEIGHBORING LEEWARD COMMUNITIES. THE SHORT TERM
RAINFALL FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST QPF CENTERED ON THE WINDWARD
UPSLOPE UPPER TERRAIN OF BOTH MAUI AND BIG ISLAND THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT AS THE
STATE FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK COL BETWEEN TWO
RELATIVELY WEAK CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE
ISLANDS TRAPPED BETWEEN THESE TWO WEAK UPPER LOWS WITH AN
ANCHORED SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TRANSLATES TO
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS, TRADES
WILL REMAIN AMPED UP WITH TYPICAL TRADE SHOWER BEHAVIOR. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD PHASE ALIGNMENT WITH THESE NEAR-STATIAONRY
FEATURES ALONG WITH A BOUT OF ENHANCED MID LAYER MOISTURE
ADVECTION, POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE,
THAT WILL BEGIN ARRIVING THURSDAY AND PASSING OVER THE STATE
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST LATER THIS WEEK SIGNALS A MORE WET PATTERN CHANGE.
RAIN COVERAGE AND HIGHER INTENSITY SHOWERS ENTRAINED WITHIN ROBUST
TRADES WILL RESULT IN HIGHER STATEWIDE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TRADE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN,
DEEPENING A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UPWARDS TO A DEPTH OF 10K FT
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. DEW POINTS TREADING IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE
FELT IN INCREASED LATE WEEK SURFACE HUMIDITY. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT OFFSET BY ENHANCED
TRADES.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND BRING LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLATED SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD SITES.
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES, WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED MVFR
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SITES FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE WILL HELP
TO DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TO SEE IF SOME ZONES MAY DROP OUT OF THE SCA AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND DROP A NOTCH THIS EVENING.
A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD, SOUTH SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEGREES) SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL SLOWLY LOWER TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SMALL SURF FOR SOUTH
FACING SHORES LEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND
ENERGY. ANOTHER MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL
(210-220 DEGREES) MAY FILL IN SUNDAY BUT DUE TO THE DIRECTION OF
THE SOURCE COULD BE MORE INCONSISTENT THAN THIS CURRENT SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE WEEK AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A SMALL, MODERATE
PERIOD WEST (280 DEGREES) SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...BLOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...FOSTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page