395
FXHW60 PHFO 080148
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
348 PM HST TUE JUL 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ALONG WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY
IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHER
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON THE TRADE WIND
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN
END OF THE STATE. THIS HAS BEEN THE SHORT TERM TREND WITH
CONSISTENT RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST-FACING COASTAL AREAS OF THE
BIG ISLAND BRINGING 2 TO 3+ INCHES OF RAIN TO THOSE AREAS IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS, WHEREAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE, WINDWARD AREAS
HAVE ONLY SEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH
OVER THE SAME PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE TYPICAL WINDIER AREAS ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SITES TOUCHING 30 MPH SUSTAINED AT TIMES AND
CONSISTENTLY GUSTING TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE, WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND
20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH. LOOKING ALOFT, HAWAII WILL REMAIN UNDER
WEAK RIDGING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT LIES BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS, ONE TO THE EAST, THE OTHER TO THE WEST.
THE BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES WILL GENERALLY FOCUS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, BATCHES OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AND MORE WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK. AS THESE BATCHES OF DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 1.5
TO 2 INCHES, THE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT, INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY ACROSS THE STATE. IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON
THE RISE, LEADING TO MUGGIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS PREDOMINATELY TO WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD
SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES, WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED
MVFR MAINLY FOR WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE, WHICH
IS DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS.
AN ADVANCED SCATTEROMETER (ASCAT) PASS FROM LATE MORNING REVEALED
THAT THESE WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY SHIFT A BIT MORE EASTERLY AND EASE
SLIGHTLY, DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW ZONES MAY BE DROP OUT OF THE SCA BY WEDNESDAY, BUT
MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE AN EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE SCA
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MODERATE, MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST (190-200
DEGREES) SWELL CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE SURF BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SMALL
SURF FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES LEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH
MAINLY BACKGROUND ENERGY. ANOTHER MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL (210-220 DEGREES) IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN SUNDAY,
BUT DUE TO THE DIRECTION OF THE SOURCE, COULD BE MORE INCONSISTENT
THAN THE CURRENT SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE WEEK AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A SMALL, MODERATE
PERIOD WEST (280 DEGREES) SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR VULNERABLE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO THE KING TIDES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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