981
FXHW60 PHFO 081912
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
912 AM HST WED JUL 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES DELIVER SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA INTO THE WEEKEND.
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE RAIN ALONG SELECT WINDWARD
SLOPES TONIGHT POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
A WELL-DEVELOPED AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT BAND OF SHOWER BEARING CU
IS ADVANCING TOWARD WINDWARD MAUI AND THE HAMAKUA COAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND AT PRESS TIME THIS MORNING. GIVEN ORIENTATION PERPENDICULAR
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN AND APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE, SUSPECT A
FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SELECT WINDWARD LOCALES
TONIGHT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO SHEAR
APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS ACCELERATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
UPON APPROACHING THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL BETWEEN THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. FOR THAT REASON, AND BECAUSE GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATES
QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE, WILL LEAVE OFFICIAL
FORECAST UNTOUCHED PENDING FURTHER OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, SOME DEGREE OF ENAHNCED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM WINDWARD KAUAI THROUGH THE HAMAKUA COAST TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 AM HST WED JUL 8 2026
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW THIS
MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING ALOFT, HAWAII WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK
RIDGING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT LIES BETWEEN TWO UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS, ONE TO THE EAST, THE OTHER TO THE WEST.
THE BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES WILL GENERALLY FOCUS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, BATCHES OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND
MORE WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK. AS THESE BATCHES OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVE THROUGH WITH PWATS REACHING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES, THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT, INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY
ACROSS THE STATE. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE, LEADING TO
MUGGIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND ONCE
AGAIN BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS PREDOMINATELY TO
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED SPILLOVER
INTO LEEWARD SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES, WITH
OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED MVFR MAINLY FOR WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 357 AM HST WED JUL 8 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE, WHICH
IS DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS.
NO ASCAT PASS AVAILABLE OVERNIGHT, BUT HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
KEEPS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WINDS IN MANY OF THE COASTAL
WATER ZONES THOUGH TONIGHT, SO WILL BE EXTENDING THE CURRENT SCA
THROUGH THEN. VERY LITTLE CHANCE IS EXPECTED TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH OR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS, SO WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR MOST WATERS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. WINDY ZONES AROUND BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED BEYOND TONIGHT AT A MINIMUM FOR THE
SCA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ZONES.
A MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEGREES) SWELL
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE SURF BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES. THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SMALL SURF FOR SOUTH
FACING SHORES LEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND
ENERGY. ANOTHER MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL
(210 DEGREES) IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT DUE TO
THE DIRECTION OF THE SOURCE, COULD BE MORE INCONSISTENT THAN THE
CURRENT SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE WEEK AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A SMALL, MODERATE
PERIOD WEST (280 DEGREES) SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR VULNERABLE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO THE KING TIDES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...JVC
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...TSAMOUS
MARINE...FOSTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page