516
FXHW60 PHFO 091322
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
322 AM HST THU JUL 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BREEZY TRADES INTO THE WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS WITH
LIMITED SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20N AND 30N PERSISTS AS
THE ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FLANKED ON EITHER SIDE BY CUTOFF LOWS. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXPECT THE TYPICAL BREEZY
TRADE WEATHER PATTERN. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE ISLAND CHAIN AND GIVEN OBSERVED WEST MOTION
WINDWARD OAHU AND KAUAI LOOK TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS
AROUND 1.75" IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS AIRMASS WILL
BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S AND MAINTAIN THE ONGOING PERIOD
OF WETTER TRADES INTO THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED BREEZY TRADES WILL
HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF MUGGINESS AS HIGHER HUMIDITY BUILDS.
GENERAL SIGNAL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FOR INCREASED
SHOWER COVERAGE TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, BRINGING IN POCKETS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS
PREDOMINATELY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE
2500 FEET FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SCA WINDS WILL HOVER NEAR THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD ACROSS THE
COASTAL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, WITH HIGHER WINDS
THROUGH THE CHANNELS AND TYPICAL WINDY AREAS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, SO FURTHER EXTENSIONS TO
THE SCA ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SMALL TO MODERATE, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (190-200
DEGREES) SWELL CONTINUES TO GENERATE MODERATE SURF BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS MORNING. THIS SWELL
ENERGY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SMALL SURF FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES LEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND ENERGY. A SMALL TO MODERATE, LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220 DEGREES) IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT DUE TO ITS TASMAN SOURCE, COULD
BE MORE INCONSISTENT THAN THE CURRENT SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE WEEK AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A SERIES OF
SMALL, MODERATE- TO LONG-PERIOD WEST (270 TO 280 DEGREES) SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SOURCED FROM TYPHOON BAVI IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. SURF
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR VULNERABLE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO THE KING TIDES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...QUESADA
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