720
FXHW60 PHFO 091954
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
954 AM HST THU JUL 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BREEZY TRADES INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS WILL RIDE IN ON THE TRADES, FAVORING SOUTHERN ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF TRADE SHOWERS ARRIVES IN THE
ALOHA STATE ABOUT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
VERY LARGE SURFACE HIGH 1035 MB OR SO MEANDERS OVER THE FAR NE
PAC THE NEXT 10 DAYS, KEEPING TRADES BREEZY WITH SLIGHT SLACKENING
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SAT AND CAMS SHOW ONE BATCH
OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER PW AROUND 1.7" MOVING
INTO BI AND MAUI CO, WHILE ANOTHER EXITS KAUAI. OAHU SHOULD BE ON N
FRINGES OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FRI. STILL ANOTHER PROGGED
NEAR THE ISLANDS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUN AM. RIDGING PERSISTS
ALOFT SO NOTHING TOO UNUSUAL EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE.
OTHERWISE, TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH PW
NEAR NORMAL THRU MIDWEEK. MJO AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WE KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TROPICS TO OUR S AND SE THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, COULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCALLY LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE ITCZ GENERALLY TRENDS MORE ACTIVE.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, BRINGING IN POCKETS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS
PREDOMINATELY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE
2500 FEET FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SCA WINDS WILL HOVER NEAR THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD ACROSS THE
COASTAL MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADES WILL REMAIN FRESH TO
STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
A SMALL TO MODERATE MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (190-200
DEGREES) SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SMALL TO
MODERATE, LONG- PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220 DEGREES) IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT DUE TO ITS TASMAN
SOURCE, COULD BE MORE INCONSISTENT THAN THE CURRENT SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE WEEK AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A SERIES OF
SMALL, MODERATE- TO LONG-PERIOD WEST (270 TO 280 DEGREES) SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SOURCED FROM TYPHOON BAVI IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. SURF ALONG
NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR VULNERABLE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO THE KING TIDES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...RAB/TS
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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