046
FXHW60 PHFO 101303
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
303 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE
COULD THEN ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OTHERWISE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TRADE WIND SHOWER DISTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OF 1035 MB WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR NE PAC
FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS, KEEPING TRADES BREEZY WITH SLIGHT
EASING EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
BOOSTING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN COULD ALLOW A FEW
LEEWARD SHOWERS.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TRADE WIND
PATTERN WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN BY MID WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS
SUGGEST NEXT WEEK THAT THE ITCZ COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SHIFT N OF THE ISLANDS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WOULD BUILD ALOFT SE OF THE ISLANDS, AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
COULD GRADUALLY GET ESTABLISHED TO OUR S. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL IMPACT US IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND CONTINUE TO BRING POCKETS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHOWERS ACROSS PREDOMINATELY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
OCCASIONALLY SPILLING OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WITH OCCASIONAL
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2500
FEET FOR WINDWARD OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES, EVEN IF
SHOWERS PROVE TO BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS. TRADES WILL REMAIN FRESH
TO STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
THE CURRENT SMALL MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEGREES)
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A SMALL TO
MODERATE, LONG- PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220 DEGREES) IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT DUE TO ITS TASMAN
SOURCE, COULD BE MORE INCONSISTENT THAN THE CURRENT SWELL.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A
SERIES OF SMALL, MODERATE- TO LONG-PERIOD WEST (270 TO 280
DEGREES) SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND HOLD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOURCED FROM TYPHOON BAVI IN THE FAR WESTERN
PACIFIC. SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT
TO TINY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR VULNERABLE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO THE KING TIDES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS-
DISCUSSION...TSAMOUS
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...WALSH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page