165
FXHW60 PHFO 101924
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
924 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS
TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE
COULD THEN ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OTHERWISE A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TRADE WIND SHOWER DISTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
A WEAK CIRCULATION WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE TO OUR SOUTH AT 12.5N
153.0W THIS MORNING. IT WILL NOT POSE A THREAT TO HAWAII, BUT MAY
STRENGTHEN OVER TIME AS IT MOVES WEST. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON ALL ISLANDS, WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS (MODERATE AT TIMES) OVER NORTH KOHALA AND
NORTHERN HAMAKUA DISTRICTS ON THE BIG ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD, WITH TRADES CONTINUING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
WIND ADVISORIES ON LAND. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM HST FRI JUL 10 2026
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OF 1035 MB WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR NE PAC
FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS, KEEPING TRADES BREEZY WITH SLIGHT
EASING EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS
OVER TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
BOOSTING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN COULD ALLOW A FEW
LEEWARD SHOWERS.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TRADE WIND
PATTERN WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN BY MID WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS
SUGGEST NEXT WEEK THAT THE ITCZ COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SHIFT N OF THE ISLANDS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WOULD BUILD ALOFT SE OF THE ISLANDS, AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
COULD GRADUALLY GET ESTABLISHED TO OUR S. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL IMPACT US IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE, WITH POCKETS
OF EMBEDDED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO IMPACT
WINDWARD SITES AT TIMES, OCCASIONALLY SPILLING OVER INTO LEEWARD
AREAS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2500
FEET FOR WINDWARD OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES, EVEN IF
SHOWERS PROVE TO BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AS THIS ONGOING TRADE WIND PATTERN PERSISTS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 6 PM FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS. TRADES WILL REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT SMALL MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEGREES)
SWELL WILL PLATEAU TODAY JUST BELOW THE SUMMER AVERAGE. A SMALL
TO MODERATE, LONG- PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220 DEGREES) IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH CAN
ELEVATE SURF TO THE SUMMER AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A
SERIES OF SMALL, MODERATE- TO LONG-PERIOD WEST (270 TO 280
DEGREES) SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TODAY AND HOLD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOURCED FROM TYPHOON BAVI IN THE FAR WESTERN
PACIFIC. SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT
TO TINY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR VULNERABLE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO THE KING TIDES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION...TSAMOUS
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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