804
FXHW60 PHFO 110109
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
309 PM HST FRI JUL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD
AND MAUKA LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
PLUME OF MOISTURE COULD THEN ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
OTHERWISE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TRADE WIND SHOWER DISTRIBUTION IS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OVER KAUAI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WERE BREEZY, AVERAGING 10-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, HELPING TO KEEP A SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE. WINDS
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN KEEP THE
TRADES BLOWING, BRINGING A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA, AND MOST NUMEROUS AT
NIGHT. ONE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
OF SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE THE NUMBER THAT MAKE IT OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF INCREASED
MOISTURE NEXT WEEK, BUT DETAILS ARE NOT AVAILABLE YET.
THE TROPICS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE NOT TOO FAR AWAY, BUT AT
THIS TIME NO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE STATE. LONGER
RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF THE MONTH MAY
BRING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY DETAILS. HOWEVER, NOW WOULD BE A GOOD
TIME TO MAKE SURE YOU ARE PREPARED FOR WHAT COULD PROVE TO BE AN
ACTIVE EL NINO TROPICAL STORM SEASON.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE, WITH POCKETS
OF EMBEDDED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO IMPACT
WINDWARD SITES AT TIMES, OCCASIONALLY SPILLING OVER INTO LEEWARD
AREAS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2500
FEET FOR WINDWARD OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES, EVEN IF
SHOWERS PROVE TO BE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AS THIS ONGOING TRADE WIND PATTERN PERSISTS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS. TRADES WILL REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SO THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
GETTING SCALED BACK TO THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE CURRENT SMALL MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEGREES)
SWELL WILL PLATEAU THROUGH SATURDAY JUST BELOW THE SUMMER
AVERAGE. A SMALL TO MODERATE, LONG- PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220
DEGREES) IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WHICH CAN ELEVATE SURF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A
SERIES OF SMALL, MODERATE PERIOD WEST (270 TO 280 DEGREES) SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SOURCED FROM TYPHOON BAVI IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. SURF
ALONG NORTH- FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS FORECAST FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR VULNERABLE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
DUE TO THE KING TIDES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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