314
FXHW60 PHFO 111339
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 AM HST SAT JUL 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND VEERING OF THE TRADE WINDS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS IN THE
TROPICS TO THE SSW. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING ENHANCED
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE COULD THEN ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER WINDWARD AREAS, WITH WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND RECEIVING THE MOST SHOWERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL KEEP THE TRADES BLOWING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
BOTH THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE THE NUMBER THAT MAKE IT OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS. THERE MAY
BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF INCREASED MOISTURE NEXT WEEK, BUT DETAILS
ARE NOT AVAILABLE YET.
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE TROPICS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE WITH POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SSW. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR IF ANY WILL OR
WONT EFFECT THE STATE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OUT OF THE ITCZ AND MOVING SW OF OUR OFFSHORE WATERS NEXT WEEK.
THIS WOULD BRING A WIDE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE, HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND INDICATE A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES AND
UNCERTAINTY, WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
NOW WHICH BRINGS A MODEST BUMP IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF THE
MONTH MAY ALSO BRING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY DETAILS. HOWEVER,
NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO MAKE SURE YOU ARE PREPARED FOR WHAT
COULD PROVE TO BE AN ACTIVE EL NINO TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, WITH POCKETS OF EMBEDDED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO IMPACT WINDWARD SITES AT TIMES, OCCASIONALLY
SPILLING OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WITH OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FOR ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AS THIS ONGOING TRADE WIND PATTERN PERSISTS.
MARINE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
WATERS MAY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BUT OVERALL
THE MODELS INDICATE WINDS STAYING UP NEAR SCA LEVELS ACROSS MORE
THAN JUST THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE,
DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO THE REGION. THE TRADES
WILL WEAKEN A BIT EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
THE SCA BEING SCALED BACK TO THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE CURRENT SMALL MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEGREES)
SWELL WILL HOLD TODAY JUST BELOW THE SUMMER AVERAGE. A SMALL TO
MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220 DEGREES) IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL BOOST SURF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A
SERIES OF SMALL, MODERATE PERIOD WEST (270 TO 280 DEGREES) SWELLS
WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOURCED FROM TYPHOON BAVI IN THE
FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. NO SIGNIFICANT NORTH OR NORTHWEST SWELL ARE
EXPECTED, SO SURF ALONG NORTH- FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FLAT TO TINY.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED, WITH COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE DUE TO UPCOMING KING TIDES, PARTICULARLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR
VULNERABLE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...TSAMOUS
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...M BALLARD
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