960
FXHW60 PHFO 120616
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
816 PM HST SAT JUL 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE STATE (40N TO 45N) WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A
SLIGHT WEAKENING AND VEERING OF THE TRADE WINDS IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
AND LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS IN THE TROPICS TO THE SSW.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD
AND MAUKA LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE EMBEDDED WITH THE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND REGIME, PREDOMINATELY ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST DESCRIBES THE
SITUATION WELL, THEREFORE NO AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE FOR THIS
EVENING'S UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM HST SAT JUL 11 2026
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WE AWAIT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SKIES WERE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER MOST AREAS. TRADE
WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY, AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE
30 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING IN
LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. WE HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA,
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A SECOND SIMILAR AREA IS COMING INTO
FOCUS IN THE GUIDANCE, DUE TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF TRADE
WINDS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP OFF IN SPEED AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW
WORKWEEK.
TO OUR SOUTH, WE ARE SEEING CONTINUING SIGNS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION, BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NOTHING THAT WOULD
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE STATE. FARTHER OUT IN TIME (JULY 20 TO THE END
OF THE MONTH), CHANCES INCREASE BUT STILL REMAIN SMALL.
AVIATION
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR BREEZY TRADES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WINDWARD
SITES, BRINGING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT, BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD KAUAI, OAHU, LANAI, AND
MAUI AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AIRMET TANGO ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WE REMAIN UNDER A BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM HST SAT JUL 11 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE,
DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF
THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS LOOK BORDERLINE. THE TRADES WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE SCA BEING SCALED BACK TO THOSE WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE CURRENT SMALL MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (190-200 DEGREES)
SWELL WILL HOLD SURF JUST BELOW THE SUMMER AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A SMALL TO MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220
DEGREES) WILL FILL IN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL BOOST
SURF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORERUNNERS FROM THIS SWELL HAVE
STARTED TO FILL IN ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES, AS EVIDENCED BY A
SLIGHT BOOST IN THE 18 TO 22 SECOND BAND ENERGY OBSERVED AT THE
BARBER'S POINT AND LANAI BUOYS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HOLD. A
SERIES OF SMALL, MODERATE PERIOD WEST (270 TO 280 DEGREES) SWELLS
WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD
WEST-NORTHWEST (280 TO 290 DEGREES) SWELL HEADING INTO MIDWEEK,
SOURCED FROM TYPHOON BAVI IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. NO
SIGNIFICANT NORTH OR NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED, SO SURF ALONG
NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO UPCOMING KING
TIDES, AND WITH WATER LEVELS RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
PREDICTED, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
STARTING TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
INTERESTS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COASTS IN LOW-LYING OR VULNERABLE
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PIERCE
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...FARRIS
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