143
FXHW60 PHFO 121943
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
943 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE. WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. TRADES SHOULD
GRADUALLY EASE LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A DRIER PATTERN POSSIBLE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
AS EXPECTED, SHOWERS BECAME MORE NUMEROUS AND A LITTLE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVING IN TUESDAY, SO THAT'S THE NEXT CHANCE TO SEE A
JUMP IN SHOWERS. NO UPDATE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
MADE AT THIS TIME. SEE THE NEW MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR NEW
INFORMATION ON A COASTAL FLOODING STATEMENT THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2026
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND
REGIME. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS OF ALL ISLANDS,
WITH OCCASIONAL SPILLOVER INTO LEEWARD COMMUNITIES. PWAT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MODEST UPTICK IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS FEATURE WOULD BRIEFLY RAISE PWAT
ANOMALIES TO AROUND TWO TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL,
THOUGH ANY INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
BIG ISLAND BEFORE MOISTURE VALUES RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD, LONGER-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN AS EARLY AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE DEEP TROPICS, WHERE SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO HINT AT POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE IT
REMAINS FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, THE SIGNAL BEARS MONITORING IN FUTURE FORECAST
CYCLES.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN THE BROADER PATTERN EVOLUTION,
WITH THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD RETREAT OF THE HIGH LEADING TO A
GRADUAL EASING OF THE TRADE WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK. SHOWER COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AS WELL, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MODEST
DRYING TREND THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE LATTER END OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTENDED FORECAST RANGE, CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE CHANGES REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 322 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2026
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR BREEZY TRADES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WINDWARD
SITES, BRINGING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT, BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD OF ALL ISLANDS AS A
RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AIRMET TANGO ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WE REMAIN UNDER A BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN.
MARINE
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE,
BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA. THE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY LATE MONDAY AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
US LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) TO BE SCALED BACK TO THOSE WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. TRADE WINDS COULD
WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY.
A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220 DEGREES) WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY, BOOSTING SURF OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND
CHOPPY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS. A SERIES OF SMALL, MODERATE PERIOD WEST (270 TO 280 DEGREES)
SWELLS WILL HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A SMALL, LONG-
PERIOD WEST- NORTHWEST (280 TO 290 DEGREES) SWELL HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK, SOURCED FROM TYPHOON BAVI IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. NO
SIGNIFICANT NORTH OR NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED, SO SURF ALONG
NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY.
PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE, WHICH
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...KINO
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