058
FXHW60 PHFO 130133
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
333 PM HST SUN JUL 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE, WITH WEAKER
TRADES TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE LIKELY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY, MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA, BUT NOT LEAVING THE LEE SIDE OUT COMPLETELY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS RANGED UP TO A HALF INCH ON
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON MOST ISLANDS, AND UP TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH ON THE BIG ISLAND. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SATURDAY,
AVERAGING 12 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE WINDIER
LOCATIONS.
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TO OUR NORTH, WE WILL BE KEPT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY, AND
THEN A LITTLE MORE TUESDAY, THEN REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE, AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS, IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN TO BE WORKED OUT BEYOND THURSDAY, BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
THE SLUG OF MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS FINALLY MIXED UPSLOPE
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THERE. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
STACKED ALONG THE KO'OLAU RANGE OF OAHU HAVE LIKELY DEMONSTRATED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AIRMET SIERRA HAS
THEREFORE BEEN DROPPED FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE AND
OTHERWISE, BREEZY TRADES WILL DELIVER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH
TRANSIENT POCKETS OF MVFR TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LEE TURB.
MARINE
A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE, BRINGING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA. DAYTIME ASCAT PASS SHOWED
WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR GALES IN THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH NORTH OF US LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) TO BE SCALED BACK
SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY
TUESDAY.
A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL (220 DEGREES) WILL CONTINUE
TO FILL IN TONIGHT AND PEAK ON MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES
WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN STEADILY DECLINE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SMALL, MODERATE
PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST (260 TO 300 DEGREES) SWELLS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK FROM FORMER SUPER TYPHOON BAVI IN
THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. AS WITH ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE SWELL, THERE
IS A HIGHER MARGIN OF ERROR DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT NORTH OR NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED, SO SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FLAT TO TINY.
PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE, WHICH
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...KINO
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