583
FXHW60 PHFO 130629
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
829 PM HST SUN JUL 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE, WITH WEAKER
TRADES TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE LIKELY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS,
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM HST SUN JUL 12 2026
RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY, MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA, BUT NOT LEAVING THE LEE SIDE OUT COMPLETELY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS RANGED UP TO A HALF INCH ON
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON MOST ISLANDS, AND UP TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH ON THE BIG ISLAND. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SATURDAY,
AVERAGING 12 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE WINDIER
LOCATIONS.
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TO OUR NORTH, WE WILL BE KEPT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY, AND
THEN A LITTLE MORE TUESDAY, THEN REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE, AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS, IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN TO BE WORKED OUT BEYOND THURSDAY, BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BRINGING INTERMITTENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR
IS POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD KAUAI. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND MAY POTENTIALLY
EXPAND TO OTHER ISLANDS DEPENDING ON HOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT.
AIRMET TANGO ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WE REMAIN UNDER A BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES BLOWING TONIGHT, BEFORE EASING MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.
THE SCA MAY BE SCALED BACK SOME ON MONDAY, FURTHER REDUCED IN
AREAL COVERAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR
ANY WATERS BY TUESDAY. THE LIGHTER TRADES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN MAY INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
AND TIGHTENS UP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
TONIGHT, PEAK ON MONDAY, THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND
CHOPPY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN STEADILY DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A SERIES OF OVERLAPPING SMALL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS
WILL THEN GIVE A SMALL BOOST TO THE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIZABLE SOUTH
SWELL MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SMALL, LOW TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER SUPER TYPHOON BAVI WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT NORTH OR NORTHWEST
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED, SO SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY.
PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE, WHICH WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
UPDATE...WALSH
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...JELSEMA
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