552
FXHW60 PHFO 131304
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
304 AM HST MON JUL 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE, WITH WEAKER TRADES TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE,
WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY, MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA, BUT NOT LEAVING THE LEE SIDE OUT COMPLETELY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS RANGED UP TO A HALF INCH ON
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON MOST ISLANDS, AND UP TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH ON THE BIG ISLAND. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SATURDAY,
AVERAGING 12 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE WINDIER
LOCATIONS.
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
TO OUR NORTH, WE WILL BE KEPT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY, AND
THEN A LITTLE MORE TUESDAY, THEN REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE, AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS, IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN TO BE WORKED OUT BEYOND THURSDAY, BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BRINGING INTERMITTENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR
IS POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, AND MAY
SCALE BACK AS MODELS SUGGEST A DOWNTREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER
IN THE DAY.
AIRMET TANGO ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WE REMAIN UNDER A BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN.
MARINE
THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY, AND FOR A SMALLER SUBSET OF THE TYPICALLY
MORE WINDY WATERS THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NOT
BE NEEDED FOR ANY WATERS TUESDAY AS WINDS SHOULD HAVE DECREASED TO
BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. THESE LIGHTER TRADES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN MAY INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS DROPS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND TIGHTENS UP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE CURRENT SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY,
THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
OVERLAPPING SMALL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL THEN GIVE A
SMALL BOOST TO THE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIZABLE SOUTH SWELL MOVING IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY
TODAY, THEN STEADILY DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURF
WILL THEN HOLD STEADY AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SMALL, LONG TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER SUPER TYPHOON BAVI WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT NORTH OR NORTHWEST
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED, SO SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY.
PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE, WHICH WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...JELSEMA
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