775
FXHW60 PHFO 140628
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
828 PM HST MON JUL 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL EASE TO MODERATE LEVELS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, WITH AN UPTICK
IN MOISTURE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
CURRENTLY, RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOME WINDWARD
AREAS. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS
A BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN ON THE TRADES. WINDS WERE AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE LATEST FORECAST AND NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM HST MON JUL 13 2026
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH DRIVING THE TRADES REMAINS QUITE
STRONG AT 1033 MB FAR NORTH OF HAWAII, BUT A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO ERODE THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING TRADES. AS THE TROUGH
DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, TRADES WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL
DECLINE. EVEN WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, KEEPING SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS TYPICAL WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH A BAND OF ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CHANGE LITTLE,
BUT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS,
LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING TRADES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RIDING ALONG
THE MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL KEEP WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED, AND LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES MAY PRODUCE CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON.
TRADE WINDS SHOULD REBUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES AWAY. ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE THE RESTRENGTHENING
TRADE WINDS COULD BE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAR SOUTH
OF HAWAII. AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY OF THE
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WOULD DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
ISLANDS DURING THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASY THROUGH TUESDAY, CARRYING
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, MOST ACTIVE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERS, THOUGH
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS WE REMAIN UNDER A BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN.
MARINE
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO THE WINDIER WATERS
AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 AM
TOMORROW MORNING. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TOMORROW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW CRITERIA. THESE LIGHTER TRADES
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN MAY INCREASE A BIT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND TIGHTENS UP THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
THE CURRENT SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL HOLD THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF OVERLAPPING SMALL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL
THEN GIVE A SMALL BOOST TO THE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIZABLE SOUTH
SWELL MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL STEADILY DECLINE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURF WILL THEN HOLD STEADY AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG EAST FACING SHORES LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SMALL, LONG TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER SUPER TYPHOON BAVI WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT NORTH OR NORTHWEST
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED, SO SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY.
PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE, WHICH WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...WALSH
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