646
FXHW60 PHFO 141240
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
240 AM HST TUE JUL 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO MODERATE LEVELS TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, WITH SHOWERS MORE
COMMON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO LATER IN THE WEEK OR THIS
COMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS INCREASING AS OF 3 AM
HST AS AN AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE STATE. WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED, AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL HELP KEEP TRADE WINDS
BLOWING FOR THE COMING WEEK, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY AND REMAINING
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY (AS WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING THIS MORNING), TONIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN AND REDUCES SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR TRADE WINDS, THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE WINDWARD
AND MAUKA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS, BUT SO FAR NO STORMS APPEAR HEADED TOWARD THE
STATE. HOWEVER, WITH EL NINO PICKING UP STEAM AND NOW FORECAST TO
REACH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD STRENGTH, NOW WOULD BE A GREAT TIME TO
MAKE SURE YOU ARE PREPARED IN CASE THAT CHANGES.
AVIATION
TRADES WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PRIMARILY WINDWARD SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT A BAND OF MOISTURE MAY DISPROPORTIONATELY IMPACT WINDWARD
KAUAI AND OAHU WITH SHOWERS TODAY, WITH SOME SPILLOVER INTO
LEEWARD SITES POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO AREAS, HOWEVER, VFR
IS BROADLY ANTICIPATED.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THIS MAY CHANGE SHOULD
SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION.
MARINE
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
CRITERIA. THESE LIGHTER TRADES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN MAY INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND
TIGHTENS UP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE CURRENT SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF OVERLAPPING
SMALL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELL SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RIDEABLE SURF
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIZABLE SOUTH SWELL
MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL STEADILY DECLINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURF WILL THEN HOLD STEADY AT SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SMALL, LONG TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER SUPER TYPHOON BAVI WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT NORTH
OR NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED, SO SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING
SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT TO TINY.
PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE, WHICH WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...WALSH
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