953
FXHW60 PHFO 150602
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
802 PM HST TUE JUL 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TRADES DELIVER SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
MODERATE TRADES DELIVERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WINDWARD
AND MAUKA THIS EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
TO TWEAK POPS UPWARD TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 357 PM HST TUE JUL 14 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT SHOWER COVERAGE HAS
GRADUALLY DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH REMAINING ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. UPSTREAM
MOISTURE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS STATEWIDE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE GRADUALLY NUDGED
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOWS PASS THROUGH THE
FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC. ANOTHER HIGH WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND IT
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PROGRESSION OF THESE
FEATURES, ALONG WITH TWO AREAS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE, WILL BRING SUBTLE EBBS
AND FLOWS IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, CONSEQUENTLY ALTERING
TRADE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY BREEZY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, STRENGTHEN TO
BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THEN POTENTIALLY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TWO AREAS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE BEING WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACTS ON
HAWAII AT THIS TIME.
BATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL FILTER IN ON THE TRADES, BRINGING
PERIODIC UPTICKS IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WHILE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS, SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY
VEER SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS
ACROSS THE STATE, AND MAY ALLOW CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES DOWNWIND OF
MOLOKAI TO BRING SHOWERS TO LEEWARD OAHU TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CIGS AND
SHRA SHOULD PRIMARILY IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA, OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR KAUAI, OAHU MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE MID MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 357 PM HST TUE JUL 14 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS POSTED FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES SINCE WE ARE IN THE MIDSTS OF THE AFTERNOON PEAK TIDES.
ANTICIPATE CANCELLING THAT STATEMENT BY 6 PM TODAY AS THE HIGH
TIDES BEGINS TO SUBSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A TRADE WIND
PATTERN, HOWEVER AS THE HIGH HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS, TRADE WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS
COULD REBOUND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SINKS
SOUTHWARD, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
OVERLAPPING SMALL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
SHORE SURF, WITH A LARGER SOUTH SWELL EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL STEADILY DECLINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE TRADE WINDS EASE. SURF WILL THEN HOLD STEADY AT
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SMALL, LONG TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER SUPER TYPHOON BAVI WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT NORTH
OR NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK
MONTHLY HIGH TIDES, COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS RUNNING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN PREDICTED. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE
CANCELLED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...JVC
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...M BALLARD
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