382
FXHW60 PHFO 151347
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 AM HST WED JUL 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TRADES DELIVER SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODERATE TRADES DELIVER
SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
BLOCKY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ESTABLISHED OVER AND EAST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE. AS THE UPPER LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AND ABSORBED INTO THE
WESTERLIES, HEIGHTS GRADUALLY REBOUND OVER THE ISLANDS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 591DM AT 500MB BY THIS WEEKEND. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
REINFORCE HIGH STABILITY DURING THIS TIME. BRIEF VEERING OF FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWEST 10KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THIS ADJUSTMENT OCCURS
POTENTIALLY SETS THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
CONVERGENT LEEWARD MOLOKAI PLUME AND EXTEND OVER PORTIONS OF LEEWARD
OAHU THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH STABILITY WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR VERTICAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWER
INTENSITY IN CHECK, BUT SOME ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED
TO NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CIGS AND
SHRA SHOULD PRIMARILY IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA, OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR KAUAI, OAHU MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE MID MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A TRADE WIND
PATTERN, HOWEVER AS THE HIGH HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED AWAY FROM
THE ISLANDS, TRADE WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS
COULD REBOUND THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SINKS
SOUTHWARD, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS AND
BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS BACK TO THE TYPICAL WINDY
WATERS.
A SMALL BUMP IN THE OTHERWISE FADING MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTHWEST
SWELL (AROUND 2.5 FT WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD) SHOULD BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH SURF TODAY, PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SOUTHWEST WILL RETURN TO A GRADUALLY DECLINE BY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF OVERLAPPING
SMALL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL SOUTH SHORE
SURF, WITH A LARGER SOUTH SWELL EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER TRADE WINDS. SURF MAY THEN CLIMB BACK
UP SOMEWHAT AS TRADES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SMALL, LONG TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER SUPER TYPHOON BAVI WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT NORTH
OR NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...QUESADA
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