249
FXHW60 PHFO 160150
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 PM HST WED JUL 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL RETURN LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL EASE A BIT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
OUR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE, SPRAWLING,
PERSISTENT 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC.
THIS HIGH WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THERE FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
THIS LEAVES THE ISLANDS IN A GENTLE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WIND
PATTERN, WHERE WEAK TROUGHS AND AREAS OF CONVERGENCE CAN TEMPORARILY
VEER LOCAL BACKGROUND FLOW TO THE ESE LIKE WE SEE TODAY. A FEW SMALL
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDES OF THE ISLANDS
TODAY, BUT OVERALL ANY CONVECTION HAS GREATLY UNDERPERFORMED THE
CAMS OWING TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN IN THE MID-
LEVELS IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS.
THE MODELS AGREE ON FAIRLY NORMAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, WITH HARD-TO-TIME AREAS OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES. THESE WILL NOT GET ANY
HELP FROM THE MID-LEVELS, WHERE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND RIDGING
WILL KEEP STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ABOVE THE TRADE WIND INVERSION.
WE WILL STILL SEE SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME,
FAVORING OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS WINDWARD. AFTER TODAY, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT MORE FOR A MINOR PEAK IN TRADE
WINDS ABOUT SATURDAY, BEFORE EASING UP JUST A BIT.
KILAUEA VOLCANO EPISODE 51 IS ONGOING, BUT WE HAVE RECIEVED ONLY
VERY LOCALIZED REPORTS OF TEPHRA IN THE CLOSED AREA OF THE PARK SO
FAR. CONTINUING TO RIDE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNLESS
WE GET SOME EVIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS 10000 FEET AND BELOW WOULD LIKELY PUSH ANY
ASH CLOUD TOWARD THE WSW, WHILE WINDS AT ABOUT 15000 FEET AND
HIGHER WOULD CARRY ANY ASH ABLE TO REACH THAT HEIGHT TOWARD THE N
OR NNE.
AVIATION
A FEW SMALL SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ON THE
LEEWARD SIDES OF MOST ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LIGHTER
TRADE WIND FLOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE STATE.
SIGMET PAPA IS IN EFFECT OVER AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE KILAUEA
SUMMIT AREA OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO THE LATEST FOUNTAINING
EPISODE OF THE ONGOING ERUPTION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND VERY BROAD WEAK
TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY VEERED
AND LIGHTER TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
SAGGING SOUTH AND A COUPLE OF LOWS DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA, CAUSING AN UPTICK IN
TRADE WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE TRADES
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER CHANNELS
AND WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST (280 TO 290 DEGREES) SWELL
FROM FORMER SUPER TYPHOON BAVI HAS ARRIVED, PEAKING THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SWELL
IS OVERLAPPING FOR SOME WEST-FACING SHORES WITH A GRADUALLY FADING
SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTHWEST (210 TO 220 DEGREES) TASMAN SWELL
THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING NEAR-AVERAGE SURF TO SOUTH-FACING
SHORES. A SERIES OF SMALL, LONG- TO MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
(190-200 DEGREES) SWELLS WILL ARRIVE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING SURF SLIGHTLY BELOW SUMMER AVERAGE. THEN AN
OVERLAPPING MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL (180 DEGREES) WILL
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE-AVERAGE
(THOUGH SUB-ADVISORY) SURF.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM FORMER
SUPER TYPHOON BAVI HAS ARRIVED AND IS BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH-FACING SHORES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SURF
WILL HOLD INTO THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY FADING AND RETURNING
NORTH SHORES TO FLAT TO TINY STATUS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER TRADE WINDS. SURF MAY THEN
CLIMB BACK UP A NOTCH AS TRADES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL,
LONG- TO MEDIUM-PERIOD SWELL TO ARRIVE, GENERATED FROM TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA.
PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...R BALLARD
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...FARRIS
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