652
FXHW60 PHFO 011306
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
306 AM HST SAT AUG 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL ALSO SETTLE IN OVER THE STATE. TRADES WILL EASE BACK TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BREEZY LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
WINDWARD LOCATIONS WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LEEWARD AREAS.
AN INCREASE CHANCE OF WINDWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY
MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS FOCUSING ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SHIFT OVER THE AREA. A STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS IS BRINGING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE WINDY AREAS ALONG RIDGES, THROUGH MOUNTAINOUS GAPS AND
DOWNSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE STATE AS WELL AS THE SUMMITS
OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, LOOSENING LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND EASING TRADES BACK DOWN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME LEVELS. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE IN MAKING FOR
LOWER CHANCES OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AND EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR LEEWARD AREA.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, TRADES WILL FURTHER EASE AS TROPICAL STORM
GENEVIEVE WEAKENS TO A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND TRACKS FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE, DISRUPTING TRADE WIND FLOW. BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE, RETURNING TYPICAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW A TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING JUST NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE MAY MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION, EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITHIN SHRA
MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE MAUKA EXPOSURES.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY FOR AREAS OVER AND
IMMEDIATE S THROUGH W OF ALL THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRENGTHENED TRADE WINDS. NO OTHER AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT.
MARINE
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE,
MEANWHILE THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND ARE NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDY TRADES WILL PERSIST
TODAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MIGRATES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10 FEET DURING
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWN TONIGHT AND IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RELEGATED TO THE
TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS BY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE PASSING FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH
WILL THEN KEEP TRADE WINDS MORE MODERATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
THE CURRENT MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FADE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD
PULSES OF ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY QUADRANT DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SURF WILL THEREFORE HOVER BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GENEVIEVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES
FROM THE STRONG TRADES IS RESULTING IN ELEVATED SURF ALONG EAST-
FACING SHORES. EAST SHORE SURF WILL PEAK TODAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TRADES
DIMINISH AND THE SWELL FROM GENEVIEVE FADES.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY. WEST
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY AS WELL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THOSE LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH SWELL WRAP.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDY TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SOME LOCATIONS UNDER A
WIND ADVISORY THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS HAS INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5,000 TO 6,000 FT, CREATING
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. ANY SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO WINDWARD LOCATIONS. WHILE THE KBDI WILL REMAIN
BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THIS WARM ,DRY AND WINDY PATTERN
WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DOWNSLOPE OF RIDGES. TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FILL IN ACROSS THE STATE NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND
INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-KAUAI SOUTH-KOOLAU LEEWARD-MOLOKAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI
LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-
SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND
NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...QUESADA
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
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