148
FXHW60 PHFO 021327
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
327 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, THE WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
POTENTIALLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY MIDWEEK, TRADES
WILL FURTHER EASE AS TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WEAKENS TO A POST-
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE,
DISRUPTING TRADE WIND FLOW. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE, RETURNING TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SLOPES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTING JUST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN ADDITION AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE STATE. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, EXPECT A STEADY
INCREASE IN LOW TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND INCREASING
CHANCES MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR WITH BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED
SHRA PRIMARILY OVER WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE MAUKA EXPOSURES.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES RESULTING IN MODERATE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
WILL KEEP AN AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY LIFTED
DECKS OVER OAHU AND KAUAI'S HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW AIRMET
SIERRA TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DECREASING TRADE WIND SPEEDS FROM MODERATE TO
STRONG RANGE TODAY INTO THE GENTLE TO FRESH RANGE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) COVERAGE WAS
LOWERED THIS MORNING TO THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS
NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, THIS SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THEN LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY MONDAY MORNING.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS CONSECUTIVE SMALL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MEDIUM PERIOD SWELLS
IMPACT THE SHORELINES INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SMALL, LONG PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE BY SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN
SOUTH SHORE SURF HEIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. POSSIBLY A LARGER
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY TODAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WIND WAVES AND A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE THAT WILL
LINGER FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING AND WEST SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO THE
EASTERLY TRADE WRAP AND THE SMALL SOUTH SWELL WRAP AROUND.
NEAR
FIRE WEATHER
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SCATTERED WINDWARD NA MAUKA SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALSO FILL IN ACROSS THE STATE NEXT
WEEK IF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ENDS UP MOVING CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS.
THIS COULD ALSO RAISE THE INVERSION AND LOWER FIRE WEATHER RISKS.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 7,000 AND 8,000 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
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