427
FXHW60 PHFO 021917
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
917 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST WILL DRIVE TRADE WINDS TODAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS REMNANT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE LINGER BETWEEN THE HIGH AND HAWAII.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP TO THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WILL DRIVE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL CARRY IN SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FOCUSING ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECLINE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE LINGER BETWEEN HAWAII AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GENEVIEVE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM AS OF THIS
MORNING, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF
TODAY. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT HAWAII ASIDE FROM THE DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH MAY
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF INCOMING TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT STILL BREEZY TRADE WINDS.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN ISOLATED STRONGER
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE MAUKA EXPOSURES.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES RESULTING IN MODERATE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
WILL KEEP AN AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT THIS MORNING.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, DECREASING TRADE WIND SPEEDS FROM MODERATE TO
STRONG RANGE TODAY INTO THE GENTLE TO FRESH RANGE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) COVERAGE WAS
LOWERED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MONDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND ENERGY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE NEXT
SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE BY SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP IN SOUTH SHORE SURF HEIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. POSSIBLY A
LARGER LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY TODAY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WIND WAVES AND A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE THAT WILL
LINGER FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING AND WEST SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO THE
EASTERLY TRADE WRAP.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...KINO
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