654
FXHW60 PHFO 030118
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
318 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST WILL DRIVE TRADE WINDS TONIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE LINGER BETWEEN THE HIGH AND HAWAII.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN HALF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP TO THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WILL DRIVE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CARRY IN SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOCUSING ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECLINE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE LINGER BETWEEN
HAWAII AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
HAWAII ASIDE FROM THE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH MAY
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF INCOMING TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
INCOMING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG A TROUGH CONNECTED TO THE ITCZ.
TRADES WILL PUSH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR WITH SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT STILL BREEZY TRADE WINDS.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN ISOLATED STRONGER
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE MAUKA EXPOSURES.
NO AIRMETS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE EXPECTED.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AS A FRONT PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
TRADE WINDS TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY MONDAY. THE
CURRENT SCA IS FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH REBUILDS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH MAINLY BACKGROUND ENERGY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE
NEXT SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE BY SATURDAY WITH A
SLIGHT BUMP IN SOUTH SHORE SURF HEIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SOUTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING WEEK (WEEK OF
AUG 9TH), WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SURF HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD SEE A STEADY DECREASE AS THE TRADE WINDS WEAKEN INTO
MONDAY. SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM
FORMER TC GENEVIEVE WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING AND WEST SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO THE
EASTERLY TRADE WRAP.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...KINO
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